The recession is over

[pedro]

Well it is according to Richard atr Casa Cayo who sold the last two floors of Bermuda landing and a decent stretch of land 6 miles north-he even rang the bell-well there were not that many people in the bar-well done

[Sunshine]

That's good news - congratulations Richard.

[Inplub]

Well done Richard

[ragman]

Brian, Real Estate in Belize is tied to what is happening in the USA for the most part.  The job less rate is predicted to stay around these levels for quite some time.  Also other troubling news today.

The National Association of Realtors said sales of previously occupied homes fell 7.2 percent in January. It marks the second straight month of a big drop. Analysts had predicted a gain. The Realtors' report comes two days after the Commerce Department said that new home sales fell last month.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported that the nation's economy grew at a faster pace than initially estimated for the end of 2009. The stronger growth from the third quarter to the fourth quarter was welcome news but analysts say much of the gain is tied to businesses rebuilding inventories. Gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 5.9 percent, above the 5.7 percent previous estimate. Growth is expected to slow in the coming quarters.

The mixed reports added to investors' confusion about the economy. Analysts are divided over whether a recovery is on track. That has led to swings in the stock market after nearly a year of strong gains. Major stock indexes have been strong this month but are little-changed for the year over all. This week stocks have fallen, jumped and slid again as worries about the economy intensified and eased.

 The economy grew but it was rebuilding inventories which means it probably was really less than expected in real growth.  I hope his second year is better than the first for our economy but I'm not optimistic.

[martinbsmithjr]

And Richard owes me at least one drink since I am the punter that bought the land up North.

[Brian]

Ragman; Yes I know none of it bodes well...

[GOD]

According to most of the economic indicators that I use the economy in the US has already hit the bottom and is currently on a slow climb.  Although there is certainly more bad news to come and the employment issues have not yet been sorted out I think the outlook is good.

4th quarter 2009 and 1st quarter 2010 are at this point much improved from a year ago and we expect this to continue getting better.  Our real estate market has been tied to the US economy over the past year or two we have seen some shift with Canadians buyers.  The Canadians represent a much more conservative clientele and the economy there seems to be a little more robust then in the US.  Also one of the interesting situations that have come out of the US banking crisis is the strength that the Canadian banking system has gained.  Although they lend more conservatively they are still lending and the Canadian banks are now second to none.  Of course the strong Canadian dollar is also an asset.

[dave bunk]

Very many 5 year arms made in 2005 are going to default this year. Do not believe everything you read!

[2Aggies]

Regarding the Canadian banking system, nearly any banking system that lends conservatively will show gains. It's when a government steps in and tells them they are smarter than the bankers and to loan money to high risk borrowers with no money down that banks will fail. Oh wait, that just happened somewhere.

[clover]

Looks like the government "stepped out" to me!!

http://motherjones.com/politics/2008/05/foreclosure-phil

More of that holding hands with big business syndrome

[martinbsmithjr]

I have four ugly words for you on this topic: Barney Frank Christopher Dodd.

[clover]

Typical right wing mantra that poor black folks aided by the left causes all the problems.

Here's your then Republican Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee's legacy.

Subprime 1-2-3
Don't understand credit default swaps? Don't worry—neither does Congress. Herewith, a step-by-step outline of the subprime risk betting game. —Casey Miner

Subprime borrower: Has a few overdue credit card bills; goes to a storefront lender owned by major bank; takes out a $100,000 home-equity loan at 11 percent interest

Lending bank: Assuming housing prices will only go up, and that investors will want to buy mortgage loan packages, makes as many subprime loans as it can

Investment bank: Packages subprime mortgages into bundles called collateralized debt obligations, or cdos, then sells those cdos to eager investors. Goes to insurer to get protection for those investors, thus passing the default risk to the insurer through a "credit default swap."

Insurer: Thinking that default risk is low, agrees to cover more money than it can pay out, in exchange for a premium

Rating agency: On basis of original quality of loans and insurance policy they are "wrapped" in, issues a rating signaling certain slices of the cdo are low risk (aaa), medium risk (bbb), or high risk (ccc)

Investor: Borrows more money from investment bank to load up on cdo slices; makes money from interest payments made to the "pool" of loans. No one loses—as long as no one tries to cash in on the insurance.

[martinbsmithjr]

What is your problem pal? Nothing you wrote in your post contradicts at all the statement I made except for the factual misrepresentation about where the bad loans originated. Now we can make it five ugly words - if you want DIMocRATS.

[clover]

I'm not your "pal"
Any idiot knows that credit default swaps caused the banking collapse...the only person that's dim is you

Nov 20 2008

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2063557120081120

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDvBtyTz3wEQ

[martinbsmithjr]

Well you got at least one thing right about being my pal. Leave it to you to think the derivatives caused the problem. The problem was obviously the underlying bad loans that were made at least in part at the insistence of Barney and your other pals.